Thanks, Mike, reasons for cautious hope. Putin and a rogue Russia have been a significant factor in changing European geopolitics with regard to NATO and EU. Trump, and an isolationist America, are factors too. Trump brags about settling the Ukraine-Russia war, achieving a peace deal, quickly. I am wondering what the effects will be if, as I suspect, he fails, and this time next year we’re wondering how it’s going to end. What will the effects be on the UK, in particular. The UK needs to be tightly integrated into European security architecture, and the economics and supply chains, that are fundamental to that architecture. Will this be the deciding factor when it comes to our, the UK’s, European future? I keep thinking about Johnson’s defence review, and how colossally mistaken he was on that. And much else. Utter moron.
I can see that, Mike. What is less clear (to me at any rate) is how the trajectory of the UK will be affected. The UK’s best future is in the European geopolitical bloc, at its heart. But whilst there are perverse elements (and I need to add that this is from England largely), who managed to mess things up in a big way (and that Putin wanted and helped engineer), then there is the high chance they will impede progress. Either the Tories wake up, smell the coffee and pivot on Europe, stand up to the far-right; or they need to be further relegated with the Lib Dems becoming the opposition, and thus changing fundamentally parliamentary dynamics. I am agnostic about Scottish independence. I believe that unless there is a UK pivot to Europe there will be a supermajority for Scottish independence by the mid 2030s. And frankly I think the Scots would be better off, independent and in the EU, if Westminster is determined to remain Europhobic.
Thanks, Mike, reasons for cautious hope. Putin and a rogue Russia have been a significant factor in changing European geopolitics with regard to NATO and EU. Trump, and an isolationist America, are factors too. Trump brags about settling the Ukraine-Russia war, achieving a peace deal, quickly. I am wondering what the effects will be if, as I suspect, he fails, and this time next year we’re wondering how it’s going to end. What will the effects be on the UK, in particular. The UK needs to be tightly integrated into European security architecture, and the economics and supply chains, that are fundamental to that architecture. Will this be the deciding factor when it comes to our, the UK’s, European future? I keep thinking about Johnson’s defence review, and how colossally mistaken he was on that. And much else. Utter moron.
I think that like Brexit (ironically), Covid and Putin... Trump will be yet another glue that knits Europe more tightly together.
I can see that, Mike. What is less clear (to me at any rate) is how the trajectory of the UK will be affected. The UK’s best future is in the European geopolitical bloc, at its heart. But whilst there are perverse elements (and I need to add that this is from England largely), who managed to mess things up in a big way (and that Putin wanted and helped engineer), then there is the high chance they will impede progress. Either the Tories wake up, smell the coffee and pivot on Europe, stand up to the far-right; or they need to be further relegated with the Lib Dems becoming the opposition, and thus changing fundamentally parliamentary dynamics. I am agnostic about Scottish independence. I believe that unless there is a UK pivot to Europe there will be a supermajority for Scottish independence by the mid 2030s. And frankly I think the Scots would be better off, independent and in the EU, if Westminster is determined to remain Europhobic.
Obviously this means a Daily Express headline about the EU collapsing shortly.
Or even “Iceland’s desperate remoaners trying to climb on sinking EU ship”
The trouble is people believe that, I've heard a lot of people and seen headlines saying exactly that.
Fascinating, well-researched, and informative piece.
Thank you 🙏🏻
A clear and well-written brief. Thank you for throwing light on a subject that for me was/is a bit of a blindspot
Thank you so much.
Your information is so much appreciated! Thank you to all 3 of you ! This is so awesome. 👏
From an American from the shit storm. Thank your in depth piece on Iceland.
Putin did not invade he was provoked. It's a whole thing.
He did invade, because he crossed an international border with troops & tanks with express intent to hold that land. That’s an invasion.
Whether his invasion was “provoked” is a different matter. I note that Hitler claimed his invasions were provoked.
the intent was to denazify and ensure neutrality- not to 'hold' nor occupy.